FORECAST PRICE OF BRINJAL BY HOLT WINTERS METHOD IN WEST BENGAL USING M S EXCEL

Abstract

The present study conducted to know the statistical investigation of price behaviour of Brinjal in West Bengal. Triple exponential smoothing (Holt winters method) was used for forecasting the monthly price of Brinjal. Measures of accuracy Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) at different levels of smoothing constants such as,  and  were used for the model selection criteria that could best describe the trend of price of Brinjal during November 2002 and January 2016. Last eight months June 2015 to January 2016 price taken for model validation. Next eight month price forecasts of Brinjal in February 2016 Rs.10.6 per kg whereas in September 2016 Rs.21 per kg respectively along with confidence intervals. This paper gives us a step by step approach to doing triple exponential smoothing (Holt winters method) analysis using the Microsoft office Excel software. A tool most common to PC‟s based on Microsoft windows operating systems and its users.