Abstract:
The growth rate and instability of mango production is studied for the period 1992-93 to 2013-14. For studying the growth
rate, linear and compound models are fitted with and without spline. Spline model is fitted to take care of abrupt jumps in
the data and evaluate the change in the trend of time series data.The entire period of study is divided into two sub-periods,
1992-93 to 2002-03 as sub period-I and 2003-04 to 2013-14 as sub-period-II as there is maximum percentage change in
area, production and yield of mango in the year 2002-03. The best fitted model is selected by considering the model
evaluation criteria, such as, Adj. R2 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The compound model without spline, compound
model with spline and linear model with spline was found to be best fit forarea, production and yield respectively. The
growth rate in area, production and yield is found by using the best fit model. The growth rate for area is found to be
positive and significant but for yield it is found to be significantly negative for each sub period and for the entire period of
study. For this, though the production shows positive growth rate but it is insignificant for sub-period-Iand also for the
whole period. The instability in mango production is studied with the help of coefficient of variation.As coefficient of
variation is affected by long term trend, it is computed after eliminating trend from the data.From study of instability, it is
found that area under mango in India shows lesser instability than production and yield. Though there is increase in production
of mango but the increase is mainly due to the positive growth in area under mango. The yield of mango is declining at a
significant rate. Decomposition analysis carried out by hazel’s decomposition technique reveals that change in mean area made
a great positive contribution towards the change in mean production, whereas, change in mean yield and change in area –
yield interaction both made negative contribution towards change in mean productionfrom sub-period I to II.
