Abstract:
Agricultural scenario of a state is reflected
by the analysis of irs food grain production status. In
Odisha, food grains share a major portion of the total
cropped area both in kharif and rabi. In kharif season,
cereals form the major share of food whereas, in
rabi the major share id by oulses. Agriculture of Odisha
is affected by the economic reforms in the 1991-92,
following which our study period (1970-71 to 2013-
14) has been divided into pre-reform (1970-71 to 1991-
92) and post reform (1992-93 to 1013-14) period. Attempts
have been taken to make a comparative study
of the growth rate and instability of area, production
and yield of food grain in the two perods. For studying
the growth rate and instability, appropriate model
which could best possibly describe the behavior of
the phenomenon are fitted by applying spline regression
technique with kink or knot placed at the year of
transition from pre-reform period to post- reform period
which is considered to be 1991-92. The possible
spline regression models which could fit very well to
the area, production and yield of food grains are identified
from the scatter plot of the data. Then by help
of residual diagnostics and model fit statistics, the
best fit models are obtained. Using the best fit model,
average growth rates of area, production and yield
are found. Coefficient of variation is used as a measure
of instability. The difference in growth rate of
area, production and yield from the pre-reform to postreform
period is found to be highly significant but
negative in case of area and production and positive
in case of yield. The difference in coefficient of variation
between the two periods is highly significant
and positive for area, production and yield.
