Abstract:
Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model: A time series modelling approach has been used to forecast wheat
production for India. ARIMA (1,1,0) model was found to be the best ARIMA model for the present
study. The efforts were made to forecast, the future wheat production for a period up to ten years as
accurate as possible, by fitting ARIMA (1,1,0) model to our time series data. The forecast results have
shown that the annual wheat production will grow in 2026-27. The wheat production will continuously
grow with an average growth rate of approximately 4% year by year