Abstract:
This article attempts to construct an extremely rudimentary framework to argue that the long-term
losses from the pandemic shock are likely to far exceed the short-term one. In the simple structure
presented here, output depends on labour force, efficiency that is determined by past nutrition levels
and capital accumulated from the past. The immediate effect of the pandemic is to lower the effective
labour size, principally due to lockdowns to prevent or delay the spread of the pandemic. The other
two factors cannot be affected. However, the decline in present output is likely to lower both the
efficiency of labour and the future capital along with the labour supply in the future, thereby causing a
greater impact on future output
